The Estudios Técnicos analysis firm estimated that based on the information it had as of Wednesday, sectors of Puerto Rico’s economy directly affected by the lockdown in place to fight the spread of the coronavirus COVID-19 will suffer a loss of $2.7 billion in direct economic activity during the remainder of 2020.
That may in turn drag the economy into a total loss of $5.8 billion when indirect impacts are factored in, the firm predicted.
Total impacts on demand were estimated at $2.5 billion, while supply side impacts amounted to $1.8 million. The impact of containment measures on economic activity was estimated at $1.6 billion.
The numbers were estimated before Gov. Wanda Vázquez announced that the lockdown and curfew that was to end Mar. 30 has been extended to April 12, an additional two weeks.
But Estudios Técnicos did say that “if the spread of the virus continues to accelerate in Puerto Rico and the U.S., [the firm] expects an extension of the local lockdown period, broader lockdown mandates at a national level, stringent national and international travel restrictions and greater supply chain impacts.”
“Under these circumstances, the economic impacts will certainly increase. Nevertheless, stimulus packages and emergency programs will soften the macroeconomic impacts of the COVID-19 crisis,” the firm added.
“As additional information becomes available, these estimates will be revised on a weekly and, as necessary, on a daily basis,” Estudios Técnicos added.
To map the general scope of the impacts of the pandemic, Estudios Técnicos based its analysis on the framework prepared by the Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development to group and summarize the main economic channels driving the loss of global economic output.
The OECD considers three groups of factors: impacts from containment measures ($709.1 million); impacts on the supply of goods and services ($838.8 million); and impacts on the demand side ($1.1 billion).
The Estudios Técnicos numbers are not incompatible with a separate economic study released Wednesday by ABEXUS Analytics, which predicted that Puerto Rico’s already-battered economy stands to lose between $3 billion and $3.9 billion during a month-long lockdown and as much as $10.1 billion if the period stretches to three months