MIDA outlines 2026 risks as tariffs, energy costs spike
Projected import tariffs of up to 12% and potential monthly energy increases of more than $2,000 for businesses are among the pressures the Puerto Rico Chamber of Food Marketing, Industry and Distribution (MIDA, in Spanish) is urging the food sector to prepare for as 2026 approaches.
The organization presented its economic, financial and consumer-outlook assessments during its annual Christmas Seminar and Cocktail Party, held under the theme “Consumption in Transformation: Between Inflation and Innovation.”
MIDA President Félix Aponte said the forum continues to function as a planning tool for industry leaders.
“This year-end MIDA seminar has become the benchmark for business plans for companies in the food industry for the new year,” he said, noting that the analysis helps companies “anticipate the possible scenarios they will face locally and internationally.”
Executive Vice President Manuel Reyes-Alfonso emphasized that supermarkets are often blamed for inflationary pressures they do not control.
“They’re the last link in a long chain where each link has suffered increases in its own costs, such as tariffs, energy costs, transportation, taxes, etc.,” he said.
Reyes-Alfonso said the industry has worked to stabilize prices and, in some cases, absorb increases. He added that gatherings like this one help companies understand the causes of inflation, plan for potential impacts and identify opportunities to soften pressures on consumers.
Among the data presented were projections showing that inflation could continue to erode purchasing power through 2026. One example illustrated that what cost $1 in 2006 is expected to cost $1.28 by the end of 2025.
The trade group also pointed to existing fees as potential areas for relief, including the $45.20 annual household cost for scanning vans, if policy changes occur.
The sector’s dependence on federal nutrition assistance was also underscored. According to MIDA, 46.5% of households in Puerto Rico — representing more than 1.2 million people — receive Nutritional Assistance Program (PAN, in Spanish) benefits, which have accounted for 28.3% of food consumption over the past five years.
The municipalities most dependent on these funds include Loíza, Ceiba, Las Marías, Maunabo and Maricao, the group noted.
Additional projections showed that tariffs could push inflation to 2.3% to 2.7%, while federal disbursements of more than $6.92 billion in 2026 may temporarily ease the pace to 1.3% to 1.6%. A second round of federal funding estimated at nearly $7.01 billion for 2027 could place inflation near 1.6%.
Energy costs remain one of the most significant risks for businesses. Rate scenarios presented at the event, tied to the Puerto Rico Electric Power Authority’s debt restructuring process, showed the possibility of electricity prices reaching 40.658 cents per kilowatt-hour in the most severe case. Under that scenario, a business currently paying $5,749.11 for electricity in October would see its bill rise to $8,131.71, an increase of $2,382.60 per month.
CPA Eduardo González-Green offered a financial snapshot of supermarket performance, noting that net income equals 84 cents for every $36.45 in sales. He also warned that Puerto Rico faces a higher out-of-stock rate of 14%, compared with 11% in the mainland U.S., and maintains only 18 days of inventory — below the stateside average of 20.5 days — which increases vulnerability during emergencies.
NielsenIQ Sales Leader Tatiana Irizarry closed the program with global consumer trends shaping the upcoming year. She explained that for retailers, “growth depends on volume,” driven by innovation, assortment precision and private-label strategies aimed at capturing limited discretionary spending.
