NIST defines resilience gaps in Puerto Rico post-Hurricane María recovery
Businesses that took specific measures to prepare for Hurricane María and that applied for and received financial aid were able to resume operations more quickly after the storm, according to the preliminary findings of a years-long investigation conducted by the National Institute of Standards and Technology (NIST).
Those that had pre-established emergency plans, diversified suppliers and backup power sources were able to resume operations faster, maintain continuity of services and contribute to stabilizing the local economy, NIST said in a July report sharing the investigation’s preliminary findings. The complete report will be released next year.
Hurricane María made landfall in Puerto Rico on Sept. 20, 2017, with catastrophic force, causing nearly 3,000 deaths and more than $90 billion in damage. In 2018, NIST launched an investigation to determine how buildings and infrastructure failed and how to prevent similar failures in the future.
“Our goal is to learn from that event to recommend improvements to building codes, standards and practices that will make communities more resilient to hurricanes and other hazards, not just in Puerto Rico but across the United States,” Joseph Main, lead investigator of NIST’s Hurricane María Program, said in a statement.
Communities can reduce the impacts of natural hazards by making their buildings and infrastructure more resilient, upgrading emergency preparedness plans for critical facilities and strengthening evacuation and communication protocols, NIST said.
Other preliminary findings
- Prolonged need for financial assistance is statistically related to slower recovery of businesses and business functions.
- Businesses, schools and hospitals that received financial assistance were able to recover more quickly than those that did not. Businesses that applied for and did not receive funds had lower odds of recovery compared to those that did not apply for assistance.
- Schools and hospitals that did not receive financial assistance within the first 18 months had statistically lower repair progress than those that received assistance.
- Complex interdependency among disruptive infrastructures — especially communications, power and roads — greatly delayed the recovery of infrastructures following the storm. Disruptions in availability of power sources, fuel, maintenance and repair services, as well as lack of communications, slowed infrastructure recovery.
- Power outages and limited generator capacities in hospitals resulted in a lack of functional elevators and air conditioning. Damage to equipment by water intrusion and to interior finishes and structure further affected hospital functionality.
- Thirty percent of road segments were disrupted immediately after the hurricane, and 54% had poor or no access.
- Transportation network disruption greatly limited access to hospitals for 50% of the population. Many sought medical care in multiple places — as many as seven — and arrived in hospitals in poor condition having deteriorated while seeking medical care.
- Disruptions in transportation and shipping delayed distribution of essential supplies and created a cascading effect that hindered long-term business recovery.
“These preliminary findings highlight the critical role of resilience investments in post-disaster recovery,” María Dillard, the program’s co-lead investigator, said in a video presentation.
“This is highly important because repair progress serves as the strongest predictor of overall recovery in statistical models for schools and hospitals,” she added.
Anticipated impacts
NIST will publish reports describing its analysis, findings and recommendations, including draft reports for public comment and final reports addressing public comments.
The Hurricane María Program is expected to include recommendations for improvements to building codes, standards and practices based on the findings, as well as research to help prevent future building failures, improve emergency communications and reduce loss of life.
Following are some of the anticipated recommendations:
- Robust measurement systems for wind, rain and flooding during extreme events to inform design criteria for future events.
- New building standards to account for faster winds caused by mountains and hills.
- Performance-based design criteria and methods for hospitals and other critical facilities to enable continued operation during and after hurricane events.
- Design standards for storm shelters and selection criteria for best-available refuge areas.
- Standby generators for continued operation of elevators and air conditioning systems.
- Guidance on recording post-event incidents affecting networked infrastructure systems for prioritization of recovery activities.
- Standards for attribution of disaster-related deaths and new standards for creating death certificates during an emergency.
“We intend for our investigation to have lasting impact to prevent building failure and loss of functionality, to improve emergency communications and to save lives. Further, we expect our recovery focused study to enhance standards and practices for how communities prepare for, respond and recover from future hurricanes,” Dillard said.
The investigation
For the Hurricane María Program, NIST assembled a team of experts in structural and civil engineering, public health, epidemiology, medicine, anthropology, communications, sociology and economics to analyze the severity of the storm, its impact on buildings and infrastructure, loss of social functions, and challenges in emergency response.
The team has conducted hundreds of interviews with emergency communicators, family members of the deceased, shipping and transportation sector representatives, infrastructure officials, and hospital, school and shelter staff members. It surveyed more than 1,500 households, 450 businesses, 300 schools and 16 hospitals for the project.
The investigation, which is running under the National Construction Safety Team Act (NCST) in coordination with a research study under the National Windstorm Impact Reduction Program (NWIRP), comprises seven technical projects — four under NCST and three under NWIRP.
NCST’s projects center on hazard characterization, performance of critical buildings, public response to emergency communications, mobility and mortality. NWIRP’s research focuses on recovery of small- and mid-sized business and supply chains, recovery of social functions associated with school and hospitals, and impact to and recovery of infrastructure systems.
Federal departments and agencies involved in the investigation include the Federal Emergency Management Agency, the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration’s National Weather Service, U.S. Army Corps of Engineers, U.S. Geological Survey, Small Business Administration, and the Department of Health and Human Services.
In Puerto Rico, NIST has been working with the departments of Health, Education, Housing, Department of Transportation and Public Works (DTOP, in Spanish), and Department of Economic Development and Commerce (DDEC, in Spanish); the Puerto Rico Ports Authority, Puerto Rico Electric Power Authority (AEE, in Spanish), the Puerto Rico Aqueducts and Sewer Authority (AAA, in Spanish); the Central Office of Recovery, Reconstruction, and Resiliency (COR3), the Puerto Rico Federal Affairs Administration, and the Resident Commissioner’s Office, as well as municipalities, universities, businesses and nonprofits.
In addition to its own engineering laboratory and other units, NIST contracted Applied Research Associates for wind field modeling; the University of Florida for wind tunnel testing and field measurement of winds; Stantec Consulting for engineering services to evaluate critical building performance; the Horsley Witten Group for social science data collection; and George Washington University, in collaboration with the University of Puerto Rico, for morbidity and mortality assessment.
NIST, a nonregulatory agency within the U.S. Department of Commerce, has been conducting investigations for 55 years. Previous NIST investigations have led to building code improvements for disasters such as tornadoes and fires. Under the NCST, NIST has statutory responsibility to promote implementation of recommendations from its investigation
