Puerto Rico economic activity rebounds in September 2025
Puerto Rico’s economic activity showed signs of recovery in September, ending four consecutive months of decline, according to the latest Coincident Indicators Index and Leading Indicators Index report prepared by economist Ángel Rivera-Montañez.
The data show that overall economic activity increased during the month and remained above levels recorded a year earlier, despite continued weakness in production sectors and the labor market. Consumption, which had remained relatively resilient amid rising prices, began to show signs of slowing.
As of September, leading indicators continued to point to growth, though at a more moderate pace, the report said. Expectations suggest a deceleration in economic activity during the final quarter of 2025, with a possible turning point in the first quarter of 2026. Even so, the risk of a recession remains limited, according to the analysis.
The Coincident Indicators Index rose 0.1% in September to a preliminary reading of 110.6, following four consecutive monthly declines. On a year-over-year basis, economic activity increased 0.3%. During the first three months of fiscal year 2026, activity rose 0.7% compared with the same period a year earlier, while the first nine months of calendar year 2025 showed a 0.8% increase.
Manufacturing activity and labor market conditions remained weak, while retail sales reflected growing consumer caution amid persistent price pressures and uncertainty related to fiscal and trade policy changes, the report found.
The Leading Indicators Index increased 0.9% in September, driven primarily by higher durable goods sales, particularly motor vehicles, which accounted for about half of the monthly gain. Additional positive contributions came from manufacturing managers’ expectations and increases in average weekly hours worked in manufacturing.
At the same time, initial jobless claims and the diffusion index exerted downward pressure on the leading index. Energy prices remained relatively stable, although recent increases in electricity bills are expected to have a more noticeable effect during the final quarter of the year, reflecting ongoing structural challenges in the local economy, Rivera-Montañez said.
Overall, the six-month growth rate of the indicators remains elevated, signaling continued economic resilience, even as momentum slows amid heightened uncertainty, according to the report.
