Index shows early challenges for Puerto Rico’s new administration
The Government Progress Index, a tool created by Puerto Rico-based Birling Capital to measure the island’s public-sector performance, shows that the first 10 months of Gov. Jenniffer González’s administration have been marked by deterioration in economic and operational indicators.
Her administration received a score of 18.5 out of 50, placing it in what Birling classifies as “minimal or recessionary performance.”
The index aggregates more than 20 variables from federal and local sources to capture the direction of the economy, the strength of public services and the government’s effectiveness in improving overall welfare.
Birling Capital President and Chief Executive Francisco Rodríguez-Castro said the model functions as an objective benchmark, relying on measurements such as output, employment, manufacturing activity, energy reliability and consumer demand.
Between Jan. 2 and Nov. 2, the index fell 30.19%, dropping from 26.5 points at the start of the year to the current 18.5. According to the report shared with News is my Business, the score is also 36.2% below its April peak of 29 points and almost 14% lower than the Sept. 2 reading of 21.5.
Rodríguez-Castro said the decline reflects “a government losing economic momentum,” with worsening results in several high-impact indicators, most notably energy reliability, gross national product growth and retail-related activity such as auto sales.
The strongest positive performance came from the manufacturing sector. The Puerto Rico Manufacturing Purchasing Managers Index rose from 46.4 to 55.5, crossing the expansion threshold and signaling what the report describes as renewed industrial confidence.
Cement sales increased 13.7%, driven by reconstruction work and private-sector building. Part I offenses fell 3.6% year over year, an improvement that Rodríguez-Castro said points to stronger policing strategies. The Economic Activity Index, although still in contraction, improved from -1.6% to -0.9%.
Energy, demand indicators turned negative
These gains were outweighed by weaknesses in key areas. Energy reliability worsened, with the system’s average interruption index rising more than 11%. The report notes that Puerto Rico customers now experience 1,580 minutes of annual outages compared with 126 minutes in the mainland United States.
Rodríguez-Castro called the gap “evidence of decades of mismanagement” and pointed to reconciliation charges, including the pension-payment adjustment, as a continuing driver of high power bills.
Economic growth slowed sharply over the period, with average GNP growth falling from 2.2% to 1.1%, which Birling labeled as the worst-performing indicator in the index. Auto sales declined nearly 16%, a drop attributed to weaker consumption and tighter credit conditions.
Unemployment rose slightly to 5.6%, which the report describes as an early sign of softening labor demand. Income, homeownership and public debt showed no meaningful change.
According to the presentation, the findings reflect both opportunity and constraint. Puerto Rico attracted $2.06 billion in new or expanded investments in 2025, helped in part by federal tariff policy encouraging reshoring to U.S. jurisdictions. Birling forecasts that industrial output could double by 2030 if that trend continues.
But the structural challenges outlined in the report remain significant. Rodríguez-Castro cited fragile energy infrastructure, an accelerating population decline, stagnant potential gross domestic product, an overstretched health care system and a continued dependence on federal funds.
Inflation pressures, regional inequality and shrinking small-business margins also weigh on the island’s long-term outlook.
The report warns that demographic shifts, including an aging population and the loss of working-age residents, threaten growth potential. It also notes that certain sectors, including health care providers and hospitals, face financial stress that predates the current administration.
The Government Progress Index was first introduced in 2017, and Birling says that Puerto Rico has not seen a prolonged period of minimal growth or contraction in the index except after Hurricane Maria and during the COVID-19 pandemic. By comparison, the first-year readings of recent administrations were significantly higher, according to historical charts included in the presentation.
Rodríguez-Castro said that while the González administration has shown progress in manufacturing, construction and public safety, those strengths are “insufficient to counterbalance” the contraction in economic growth and the deterioration in energy reliability and consumer demand. The results, he said, should prompt urgency around energy reform, productivity, income growth and Puerto Rico’s full integration into federal benefit structures.
