Puerto Rico’s population shift calls for new strategies
Between 2000 and 2023, Puerto Rico’s total resident population decreased by 599,914 people. This decrease occurred mostly among those under 54 years old, particularly among those 6 to 19 years old.
This group decreased by 640,210 people, and its share of the population fell from 32.1% in 2000 to 18.1% in 2023. In contrast, the population 65 and older increased by 345,724 people, and its share rose from 11.2% to 24%.
People 55 and older represented 37.5% of the total population in 2023, compared with 20.4% in 2000.
Population declines reflect processes such as mortality, emigration, pandemics, increased economic growth, low fertility rates, partner preferences, and a better-educated female population.
These factors partly explain this population decline. In turn, population changes affect economies through shifts in consumption patterns, the need for services for an aging population, the demand for housing, and readjustments in income levels.
In Puerto Rico, as elsewhere, some have suggested or proposed adopting measures to encourage population growth. A recent and comprehensive analysis by Adair Turner helps place such proposals in the correct economic context.
In summary, his main findings and conclusions are as follows:
“(1) Contrary to conventional wisdom, rapid population growth rarely brings demographic benefits (e.g., improvements in per capita income levels); (2) low fertility rates do not necessarily lead to economic stagnation, while high rates contribute to exacerbating underemployment, limit investment in education and infrastructure, and contribute to perpetuating poverty.”
He notes that fertility rates declined significantly in Sweden, the United States, Canada and among the fastest-growing economies, such as Singapore, falling below 2.1%, even as these economies reached high levels of development. He also points out that there is no evidence that economies with high fertility rates grew faster — quite the opposite.
Japan, with a population about 4 million fewer than in 2000, has seen per capita GDP grow by 0.6% annually. Productivity has expanded significantly, and generative AI is contributing — and will continue to contribute — to further development and economic well-being.
The author points out how China’s manufacturing sector produces 30% of all manufactured goods consumed in the world, even though it adopted birth control policies.
Turner’s comparative analysis compels us to seriously rethink these proposals, in the sense that population growth must be stimulated. The evidence points to another direction, other strategies and approaches that impact social well-being and economic growth.
Author Graham Castillo is president of Estudios Técnicos Inc.
