Puerto Rico’s silent demographic crisis threatens our future
Raúl Burgos warns that urgent action is needed to reverse population loss and avoid long-term economic decline.
When we discuss Puerto Rico’s economic future, the conversation often turns to infrastructure, political status, federal funding, or the need for innovation and entrepreneurship. These are critical issues, but they all pale in comparison to a more silent, dangerous, and largely neglected threat: our demographic trends.
Puerto Rico today is facing a demographic time bomb and if we do not act urgently, no amount of economic development plans, tax incentives, or federal aid will save us from the consequences.
The numbers we cannot ignore
According to the most recent U.S. Census data, Puerto Rico’s population has declined by nearly 12% over the past decade, and the median age on the island is now over 44 years, significantly higher than the U.S. average. Forecasts predict that by 2038, Puerto Rico’s population could shrink below 2.7 million, with nearly a third of residents over the age of 65.
In simple terms, we are rapidly becoming a smaller, older society.
This matters for one key reason: economic vitality depends on people; especially working-age people. Entrepreneurs, workers, consumers, taxpayers, and innovators all come from the dynamic segments of a population, typically aged 15 to 55. As that segment shrinks, and the elderly segment grows, Puerto Rico will face an economic drag that no policy can easily offset.
A shrinking labor force and strained systems
The most immediate impact of aging and depopulation is on the labor force. As more Puerto Ricans retire and fewer are available to replace them, companies will struggle to find workers. Critical sectors like health care, education, manufacturing, and tourism, the very engines of Puerto Rico’s economy, are already feeling this strain. Without sufficient human capital, business growth will slow, investments will stall, and wages will stagnate.
Simultaneously, the tax base will erode. Fewer workers mean fewer income tax revenues. Fewer young families mean lower consumption, which hits sales taxes. This undermines the government’s ability to fund essential services, from education to public health to pension obligations — all while demands on these systems increase due to an aging population.
Health care costs are set to explode. Older populations consume significantly more in health care services, yet Puerto Rico’s health care infrastructure is already stretched thin and struggling with chronic underfunding. Without proactive measures, we will face a collapse in health care accessibility and quality, which in turn will drive more residents to migrate in search of better services thus further accelerating the cycle of decline.
The brain drain will only worsen
Migration patterns reveal another ugly truth: those who leave are often the youngest and most educated. This “brain drain” robs Puerto Rico of the very talent and energy needed to revitalize the economy. Left unchecked, it creates a downward spiral; fewer opportunities lead to more departures, which lead to fewer opportunities still.
In other words, unless we aggressively change course, Puerto Rico risks becoming a retirement island with dwindling productivity, shrinking economic dynamism, and increasing fiscal unsustainability.
A call to action to reverse the trend
This bleak scenario is not inevitable. But it will require bold, urgent action centered on one core goal: rebuilding our population and rejuvenating our workforce.
First, we must create a strategic plan to attract and retain young people and families. This includes better job opportunities, investment in innovation-driven sectors, affordable housing, world-class education, and improved quality of life factors like safety and health care. Economic incentives should target not just businesses and high-income nonresident individuals; we need to cast a wider investment net that can help any young professional, entrepreneur, and remote worker, resident and nonresident alike, to see Puerto Rico as a viable place to live, seek their economic future and thrive in their pursuit of their own long-term goals.
Second, we must support family growth. Policymakers should consider greater tax credits for families, subsidized childcare, expanded parental leave policies, and housing assistance for young couples.
Third, Puerto Rico must embrace selective immigration. Many countries facing demographic decline, from Canada to Australia to Japan, are adopting immigration policies to attract skilled workers and stop the population decline. Puerto Rico should do the same within the limitations faced by current immigration policies. Under current U.S. immigration policy, visa quotas are severely restricted, and asylum policies have been tightened. Even skilled immigrants are finding it harder to enter the United States. This limits Puerto Rico’s ability to replenish its workforce organically through national immigration policies.
What can we do? Puerto Rico can market itself more aggressively to U.S. citizens and legal residents from Latin America, the Caribbean, and the mainland. A population already residing under the flag offers the only workable starting point for a potential solution currently.
Finally, we need an urgent national conversation, led by government, academia, business, and civic leaders to recognize that demographic sustainability is economic sustainability. Every investment, every policy, and every development strategy must be evaluated through the lens of whether it will help grow and rejuvenate our population.
A future we can still build
Puerto Rico’s economy cannot flourish without people. Human capital is the most vital resource any society possesses and right now, ours is declining. If we do not reverse our demographic trends, all our other efforts will be undermined by a fundamental lack of workers, consumers, taxpayers, and innovators.
The clock is ticking. Puerto Rico’s leaders must treat the demographic crisis with the urgency it demands or else we risk becoming a beautiful island preserved only in memory, not in thriving communities.
The choice is still ours to make.
Author Raúl Burgos is president and managing partner of Global 1080 Business Solutions, a consulting firm with over 15 years of experience supporting business leaders across the U.S., Puerto Rico, and Latin America. With over 30 years of business experience, he is also the founder of the Puerto Rico Business Group on LinkedIn, a professional community of more than 30,000 members focused on economic development and entrepreneurship in Puerto Rico.
