Puerto Rico ranks among world’s fastest-shrinking populations
The island’s continued population loss poses long-term economic risks, experts say.
Puerto Rico is the fourth jurisdiction with the highest population decline in the world, according to recent statistics showing the island’s population shrank by 1.2% in 2024 compared to the previous year.
The Cook Islands in the South Pacific, American Samoa, and Saint Pierre and Miquelon experienced greater population declines — at 2.24%, 1.54% and 1.21% respectively — Statista reported.
Of the 20 countries with the highest rate of population decline, the majority are island nations, where emigration rates are high, particularly to Australia, New Zealand and the U.S. mainland, or they are in Eastern Europe, which suffers from a combination of high emigration and low birth rates, according to Statista.
Puerto Rico’s population is forecast to decline steadily between 2024 and 2029, dropping by 100,000 people, or 3.13%, to little more than 3.1 million in 2029 — reaching its lowest level since 1977. The island’s population peaked at 3,827,000 in 2004, according to World Bank and U.S. Census Bureau data.
The United Nations projects that the global population will peak at approximately 10.3 billion in the mid-2080s before gradually declining to about 10.2 billion by the end of the century.
However, this figure may be optimistic, as some projections suggest a peak as early as 2050.
“One reason is because the pandemic-era baby bust in some countries may have worsened the decline, and the problem appears to be long-lasting,” global investment firm Capital Group reported.
“Even in certain African and Latin American countries, where birth rates are historically high, the number of newborns has dropped closer to the replacement rate of 2.1 children per woman. Given these trends, humanity’s population could peak around 2050,” according to the report.
Economic consequences of population decline
Population decline is increasingly affecting global economies and businesses, according to multiple sources including the McKinsey Global Institute and the Lowy Institute. Since 2020, the trend has intensified, creating significant challenges across various sectors.
A shrinking workforce is a direct consequence of population decline. A 2023 report by Lightcast warned of a looming labor shortage, projecting a deficit of 6 million workers by 2032.
In Puerto Rico, population decline “is a reality that is directly affecting the economy,” said Ramón Vega-Alejandro, executive director of the Puerto Rico Manufacturing Extension (PRiMEX), during the organization’s symposium, “Population Decline in Puerto Rico: A Multisectoral Challenge.”
Vega-Alejandro noted the island lost an estimated $1.2 billion in income due to the departure of more than 600,000 people between 2008 and 2022.
“Retaining the existing population and attracting people to return is crucial to strengthening the economy and the manufacturing industry, which accounts for about 46% of the country’s income. This effort requires a multisectoral approach that encompasses both social and economic factors,” he said.
In the U.S., the retirement of the baby boomer generation has led to a shortage of skilled labor, Forbes and other news outlets have reported. This gap is exacerbated by reduced immigration and lower birth rates, making it difficult to replace retiring workers.
Population decline is expected to affect both the supply and demand sides of the economy, according to an article published in the journal Nature and other sources. In the U.S., population decline in certain regions — especially rural and agricultural areas — has led to diminished consumer demand, adversely affecting local businesses and economies.
Globally, the countries most affected by population decline include Asian nations such as South Korea, Japan and China, as well as Eastern European countries like Bulgaria, Lithuania and Latvia, along with Italy, Russia, Ukraine, Moldova, Greece and Portugal, according to World Population Review, The Associated Press, Reuters, Business Insider, Euronews, Statista, DevelopmentAid and other sources.
